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Three Numbers To Define Ultimate Summit 3

By Jack "Jackie Peanuts" Moore | 08/30/21

Top-level offline Smash Ultimate returned in a big way this weekend, with Smash Ultimate 3 not only delivering dozens of matches from some of the best players in the world, but also dropping the largest prize pool in Smash history, approaching $160,000 as the shop neared closing at the time of this writing.

The weekend was filled with high drama and top-tier competition. These three numbers go the farthest to define Ultimate Summit 3's action:

14

Entering Ultimate Summit 3's bracket phase
Diddy Kong
was mired in one of the most painful losing streaks in Smash history against
Pyra/Mythra
Joker
Byleth
. Lest we forget, Tweek had Leo's numbers in the earliest days of Ultimate. At Frostbite 2019, it was Tweek pulling the reverse 3-0 in Winners Finals, and he would close it out with a 3-0 with his Wario in Grand Finals.
Between Frostbite 2019 and Ultimate Summit 3, Tweek lost seven consecutive sets to MkLeo in either Winners, Losers or Grand Finals of major tournaments. It would be one thing if those sets were non-competitive. But Tweek had so many chances to win. In those seven sets, Tweek was able to put himself in position to close out the set five times. And in those five sets, he lost 14 consecutive potential closeout games.
At Evo 2019 Grand Finals, Smash Con 2019 Losers Finals, Kongo Saga Grand Finals and Frostbite 2020 Losers Finals, Leo pulled a reverse 3-0. At Kongo Saga's Winners Finals, Tweek went up 2-1 just to have the rug yanked out from under him by Leo's Joker once again.
That's why there's a strong argument that the single most pivotal stock of Sunday's main bracket occurred all the way back in Winners Quarterfinals, when Tweek took his first 2-0 lead of the day against MkLeo. It's easy to forget now, but Leo built up a pretty big lead in Game 3:
And had a couple of chances with Tweek offstage at high percent to close it out.
We have seen what happens when MkLeo is able to bring momentum back to his side. Who knows what would have happened had Leo managed to seal Game 3 of the first set way back at the beginning of the day's action. I do feel pretty confident that the full storyline of Game 4 and a potential Game 5 would have been the long history of Leo's reverse 3-0s, and I can't even imagine how heavily that history was weighing on Tweek.
Instead, we didn't even get to see a fourth game, in the Winners Quarterfinal set or the seemingly inevitable runback nearly half a day later in Grand Finals. Tweek was able to conquer his demon, and now we get to ask the question, as more in-person majors loom on the horizon: Can he be the best in the world?

2nd

MkLeo wasn't able to bring it all the way back through losers, but he did win five consecutive sets in losers bracket to take second place. He extended his undefeated offline streaks against
Rosalina & Luma
Olimar
Min Min
(12-0),
Roy
(3-0),
Joker
R.O.B.
(4-0) and
Pyra/Mythra
Cloud
(2-0) and took out the player with the best record against him among those at the event, Marss
Zero Suit Samus
, bringing their set count at major events to 8-6 (57%) in Leo's favor.
Leo's consistency is entirely unmatched. At Umebura Japan Major 2019, when he was trying out Joker for the first time at a major event, he finished 33rd/1,015.
MkLeo at Umebura Japan Major 2019, where he fell to
Peach
and
Daisy
.
At his next event, GOML 2019, he finished 4th/847. Since then, he has finished no worse than second at 17 major events, including the 15 PGRU events he entered from Momocon 2019 onward, as well as the Central America Regional Finals and Ultimate Summit 3 in 2021. In fact, he has finished no worse than second at ANY offline event featuring Top 50 players in that time period.
MkLeo's placements at events featuring other PGRU-ranked players. Click to expand.

2-7

Even though the online era was his introduction for much of the Smash world, Sparg0 has been considered the future of Ultimate by many since well before quarantine. At CEO 2019, Sparg0 made an incredible run to 17th/1164 and took his first PGRU names in the process, defeating
Olimar
and
Pac-Man
on his way to a Top 24 finish at one of the world's most-stacked tournament.
The next breakthrough never quite hit for Sparg0. He would get four more chances to earn PGRU wins at majors between CEO and quarantine, but would fall every time, losing to
Snake
,
Palutena
,
Fox
and
Inkling
(characters listed were used by the opponents at the time). After a slightly disappointing 5th place at the Central America Regional Finals in the lead-up to Summit, Sparg0 wasn't looking like a favorite to go deep in the event.
Instead, Sparg0 looked like one of the event's strongest players from Day 1. He went undefeated in pools and sliced his way to Winners Finals. Along the way, he tripled his PGRU win total (at major events), claiming four huge names:
After going 2-7 in his first nine sets against PGRU-ranked players at major events, Sparg0 rattled not only took down four ranked players at Summit, but three (
Sonic
, Zackray and Tweek) were Top 20, and two (Zackray and Tweek) were Top 10. Whenever we see him on a major stage next, Sparg0 will have a serious target on his back, because he proved he is a top-level player this past weekend, online or offline.
Jackie Peanuts is the Director of PGstats. A sportswriter and statistician, Jackie's work has appeared on ESPN, CBS, Vice, The Guardian, The Atlantic, and others.
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