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As we covered on the channel last week, Glutonny was on fire at Genesis 8, pushing his advantage state farther than we've ever seen and earning wins against players like Kola and Sparg0 who had given him hell in past meetings. Against Leo, whom Glutonny fought in both Winners Quarterfinals and Grand Finals, it was an entirely different story. Glutonny was unable to take a single game in either set, and, no coincidence, he hit just one waft. Now, that's not the be-all end-all for Glutonny -- he only hit one KO waft in his win over Sparg0, as well, and it was in a game he lost.
But that's not the only key to those sets. The first minute of the game is key for a Wario player. Without waft, this is Wario's weakest phase of the game. His job here is to survive and make sure he'll be able to get maximum use out of waft as the game goes on, whether that means having a full waft on deck for the last stock, or even stretching the game out enough to use multiple. That didn't happen at all against Leo at Genesis.
As you can see here, Glutonny wasn't the one taking the earliest stocks in this set. It was Leo who was able to take the earliest two stocks, with help from Gluto on a key SD in Game 2 as well. Gluto was forced to play constant catch-up, either forced to aggressively fish for the waft equalizer or hold on to the waft for a last-ditch effort on the last stock -- if he could even force it. Perhaps worse than the fact that Glutonny only hit one waft across those six games is that he only even attempted 5. The games were too short and the leads were too few and far between for Glutonny to find his openings, and the result was destruction in Leo's favor.
Before we take a look at the Pound sets, let's go back to Summit 4, the last time these two played a full set of Wario vs. Byleth. The first two games feel almost ripped from the Genesis sets. Both games were defined by Leo's ability to hold his second stock. In each game, he was able to survive for over two minutes on his second stock, denying Glutonny the game-sealing waft opportunity he was looking for. In both cases, Glutonny held it in, and he took a pair of Ls as a result.
The next three games? Glutonny went off, hitting five of the six wafts he attempted as he pulled one of the rarest feats in Ultimate, a reverse 3-0 over the GOAT. So, Glutonny wins when he hits his wafts? That's great, but you don't exactly need a degree from Smash University to figure that out. The answer to Glutonny's success, both in the final three games at Summit and in his win at Pound, lies deeper.
The thing about those first two games at Summit is that Gluto didn't lose because he missed his wafts. He didn't even attempt one, just as he didn't in Game 2 of Grands at Genesis 8.
In Game 3 of the Summit set, Gluto tossed the gameplan of saving the waft for the final moment out the window, and it saved him. Game 3 saw him go for one of the rawest wafts you'll ever see from a top-level Wario: not only is it rare to see Warios go for waft this early with no confirm, it's even rare to see them do it with the opponent at such a high percent.
In a vacuum, it seems incredibly risky to use the resource at this time of the game. But looking at the rest of the set, it makes perfect sense: Glutonny had been punished hard for holding his waft because Leo simply wasn't dying to anything else. In order to open up the game, Gluto decided to let it rip. He was doubly rewarded: not only did he get the stock for it, but using waft just over a minute into the game allowed him to get two more half-waft opportunities, one of which hit to end the game.
Game 4 was a bit more standard. Gluto held onto his second stock forever, was able to force Leo to last stock first, and clutched it out with a whiff punish on a would-be set-ending downsmash from Leo. But the final game again saw Gluto get aggressive with the waft. Thanks to a relatively quick first stock, Gluto was able to use the waft to pressure Leo on his second stock, and after finding an opening from a ledge roll, he found the early stock he needed to claim a two-stock lead. With all the time in the world, Gluto was able to wait out another half-waft, which he used to seal the set.
So the question here isn't really, can Glutonny hit his wafts. The question is, can he give himself the opportunity to do so in a spot that matters? At Genesis, Leo did a fantastic job of holding his second stock to prevent the high-impact waft situation from presenting itself in the first place. He also did a tremendous job of taking Glutonny's stocks early and keeping the game short. When it feels like one waft is all Glutonny can get, he's much less tempted to pull the trigger before the final stock.
Looking at the data from the Summit and Genesis sets, one number seems to decide whether or not Glutonny can win the game: the timer when he loses his second stock. In the three wins in these three sets, Glutonny lost his second stock an average of 3.6 minutes into the game. In his eight losses, he lost his second stock an average of 2.8 minutes into the game. There's a pretty clear line to be drawn here: If Glutonny can make it three minutes into the game with his second stock intact, he at least has a chance.
Would that pattern hold through the Pound sets? Let’s watch:
Game 1 of Winners Semis: Glutonny actually fell to last stock first, but the good news? He held on for a solid 3 minutes and 31 seconds. Perhaps more importantly, he was able to clear Leo’s second stock with the invincibility from the first stock before finding an incredible back-and-forth combo route to connect the game-winning waft. So far, that’s one-for-one for our key to the set.
Game 2 was Leo’s sole victory in the winners set. Once again, Gluto dropped to last stock before Leo, but this time, he had only held on for 2 minutes and 4 seconds. Gluto found Leo’s last stock relatively quickly, but was unable to connect his best waft opportunity and lost the game shortly after. So far, the rule holds: live to three minutes with your second stock, or lose.
Game 3 saw Glutonny’s most shocking use of waft yet: as a parry punish to armor through the multiple hits of Byleth’s oppressive neutral-air. Leo was able to retake the lead, but not before Gluto held onto his second stock for nearly 4 whole minutes. Again, Gluto found the revenge kill and, thanks to how early he used the first one, had a full waft on deck ready to take the game off an incredible full-stage combo. That’s the first time we had seen Gluto go for multiple wafts against Leo since the Summit set, and it paid off handsomely. And once again, our golden rule was correct: Gluto lengthened the game, and he won.
In Game 4, Leo was able to find another stock lead, and this time he finally snuffed out Gluto’s second stock before the three minute mark, at 2:48 into the game. The fact that Gluto was able to find the downtilt-dash attack confirm off the angel platform is what let him stay in this game. Less than 45 seconds later, Gluto would find his new favorite combo, the jab lock into waft, to claim the set.
Gluto didn’t live to three minutes, but most importantly, he was able to extend his second stock long enough to threaten Leo with the revenge kill off the angel platform, opening the door for waft to win the set.
Now, Grand Finals. Leo is likely aware that he needs to make these games faster, and he immediately did so in Game 1, picking up a nasty shield break to force a last stock situation. Still, Gluto had his waft on deck and was able to take the game, the first game he was able to take from Leo’s Byleth in the post-lockdown era when losing his second stock so early.
Despite the setback, Leo was not about to slow down. In Games 2, 3, and 4 of the first Grands set, Leo didn’t give Glutonny a single waft opportunity. In all three games, he was able to take Gluto’s second stock before the two-and-a-half minute mark, including a vicious three-stock to end the set where Gluto’s second stock evaporated at the 64-second mark.
Let’s evaluate our golden rule before we go into the Grand Finals Reset. At this point, dating back to Summit, Leo and Gluto had played 19 games, with Leo holding a 12-7 advantage. When holding the second stock for three minutes, Gluto was 5-3. When failing to hold the second stock for three minutes, he was 2-9. There are ways for Gluto to win if he loses early stocks, to be sure, just as there are ways for him to choke should he manage to hold on. But the numbers don’t lie: if Glutonny can just hold on to his second stock long enough, the power of waft could bring it home.
Gluto was able to extend Game 1 of the reset, holding his second stock for nearly four minutes. But the critical second part didn’t come to fruition. Despite a few terrifying scramble situations as the game wound down, Leo was able to find the down-tilt up-air confirm he needed.
In Game 2, Gluto’s survivability continued. He held each of his first two stocks well beyond 100% and didn’t drop his second stock until 3:43 into the game. As we saw a few times in Winners Semis, the fact that he lasted long enough to give himself a chance at the revenge kill off the angel platform proved critical. Gluto was able to take Leo’s stock within seven seconds of losing his own, and this time, with one of his classic roll reads, he was able to find the necessary waft to get on the board.
In Game 3, Leo finally got Gluto down to his last stock before the three minute mark. Worse for Gluto, Leo held a clean second stock of his own at that point. Gluto never found the opportunity for the waft in this game, but even if he had, there still would have been more work to do.
Game 4. Now, Gluto has his back to the wall. Despite a strong start from Leo, Glutonny survives a few near-killing blows and even manages to find the first stock off a missed tech on the Pokemon Stadium platform. Leo would quickly clean it up, but the length of the first stock meant Glutonny had a full waft already on line. All it took was one clean spotdodge for Gluto to pick up a huge lead. By the time Leo found Gluto’s second stock, 3-and-a-half minutes had ticked off the clock, and a half-waft was already on line, prepped for Leo’s third stock. Leo played almost perfectly down the stretch, but one landing nair onto the platform was all it took for Gluto to squeeze out the victory.
Game 5. The first stock drags out, just as Glutonny wants, even if Leo is able to even things out quickly after Gluto gets on the board first. Leo keeps chipping away, but Gluto is playing incredibly safe. The hits keep coming, but Leo can’t find the follow ups. By the time Leo finally finds the stock, three minutes and 18 seconds have come off the clock. With the full waft on deck, the entire set essentially comes down to how long Leo can hold this second stock, with 64% already on him. TKBreezy put it perfectly:
For that reason, it’s entirely reasonable to say this is the interaction that won Pound:
One big parry and one even bigger jump read later, Glutonny had his waft and his victory, finally winning a North American major and doing it over the man who had stopped him just one week prior.
Again, our pattern held. If Gluto was able to extend the game, good things happened most of the time. He lost the one game he failed to hold his second stock through the three minute mark in the Grand Finals reset, and he won three of the four where he was able to do so. It was a complete reversal of what we had seen in Grand Finals at Genesis just the week before, where Leo was able to find consistent early stocks and not just force missed wafts out of Glutonny, but prevent him the opportunity to use it at all.
Overall, the game count between the two in the Byleth-Wario matchup now sits at 13-11 in MkLeo’s favor. Gluto held his second stock for nearly a full minute longer in the 11 wins, winning only twice when he failed to hold his stock for three minutes, and losing every single time he failed to hold the second stock for at least 2 minutes and 20 seconds. His Pound win was the result of absolutely incredible defense played against the world’s best at finding cracks in your armor.
What does this mean for the future? If you want to beat Glutonny, your best bet is probably to rush him down, but that’s much easier said than done. Light has done it in the past, but he’s the best rushdown player in the world, and he’s now nursing a three-set losing streak to Glutonny. Wario has the frame data to box with just about anybody and the air mobility to run away from the rest, and Glutonny has that perfect combination of incredible punish game and survivability to maximize everything that makes this character unique.
MkLeo remains the best player in the world, but between Sparg0 and Glutonny, he’s amassing some pretty serious challengers. Gluto returned home to France following Pound, but he’ll be back in America for Double Down, and you can bet the sets we’ll get upon his return will be some of the hottest we’ve ever seen.
For now, though, our attention turns towards Texas and Low Tide City, where Ultimate and Melee will both be in action for the third straight weekend, as well as Japan, where the Golden Week holidays promise some of the biggest tournaments the country has seen in months. Subscribe to PGstats to keep up with everything you need to know from all the upcoming smash action.
