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He’s done it again! Following his first major win at Ultimate Summit 4, Sparg0 won his first open-entry major at Collision by taking out the runners up Tweek, MkLeo, and Riddles on his path to grand finals. There, after a surprise win for Tweek against MkLeo in losers finals, Sparg0 and Tristate’s Joy Boy squared off in a 6-game set. Despite getting 3-0’d by Tweek to kick things off, Sparg0 managed to bounce back and do the same in return. On the surface, it’s easy to dismiss the results at Collision as a return to the status quo. Sparg0, Tweek, and MkLeo placed within the top 3, as we’ve all come to expect from the trio. However, the balance of power between the three continues to shift in Sparg0’s favor, making for an increasingly interesting game of tug-of-war between the players.
The road to Sparg0’s win wasn’t all rainbows and butterflies though. There were a few close encounters throughout Sparg0’s run, including a game 5 set against Grayson, a ROB main from Texas, and LeoN, a top Tristate player widely considered to be the best Bowser in the world.
Tweek also had a performance worth celebrating, placing 2nd while taking sets off both MkLeo and Sparg0, though losing to Sparg0 in winners semis and the grand finals reset. His win over Leo marks the first time he’s beaten the god of Ultimate since Summit 3, a win coming in an incredible set full of huge comebacks and heart-wrenching false kill screens. Notably, this was the first time Tweek has beaten Leo in an open bracket (or in front of a crowd) since Frostbite 2019. Six different times, Tweek managed to bring Leo to Set Point but couldn’t seal the deal: Evo 2019, Smash Con 2019, Kongo Saga (twice), Frostbite 2020 and Riptide all saw Tweek push Leo to the brink. With that history, you can understand why the Losers Finals victory was such a meaningful one for Tweek.
The latest edition of the Leo-Tweek saga was especially exciting, as the two managed to avoid each other throughout Ultimate Summit 4 thanks to Tweek’s loss to Light. Though he may be less consistent than Sparg0 and Leo for the moment, Tweek’s top 2 finish this weekend shows without a doubt that he’s still in contention for top 3 in North America, if not the world.
Before we discuss MkLeo, let’s get one thing straight: he is still the best player in the world. Placing outside of top 2 twice in a row doesn’t change this, nor does it mean he’s washed. In April 2019 MkLeo finished 7th at two majors in a row followed by a 33rd place finish at Umebura Japan, his worst placement at an offline major. Thought he was washed back then? Well, these losses were directly followed by the greatest winning streak in Smash Ultimate’s history, and what would define MkLeo’s legendary status.
With all that said, we are arriving at a turning point within Ultimate where MkLeo is losing his iron grip on the game’s throne. We have a month-long break from majors now, and going into Genesis the favorite to win may no longer be MkLeo but rather Sparg0.
When you’re at the top for as long as MkLeo has been, the question starts to become, “how long can he keep this up?” We may soon have our answer.
Sitting just outside of the top 3 with losses to Sparg0 and Tweek, Riddles had his best major tournament placing ever at Collision 2022. Seeded 23rd, he pulled off some of the biggest upsets of the tournament. With wins on Scot, Jake, Light, Tilde, Kola, and Quidd under his belt, the Richter turned Terry/Kazuya main racked up some ridiculous kills with his characters.
While this was his best performance yet, it’s also not all too surprising given his consistency throughout the game’s lifespan. At his previous best run, SmashCon 2019, he defeated players such as Mew2King, Dabuz, and Scend before finishing at 13th out of over 2700. Riddles ranked 47th on the 2nd PGRU rankings in early 2020, and remained extremely active during the WiFi era. He still regularly enters the Coinbox online weeklies and retains his spot as Toronto’s best player, usually finishing first within his region.
If you tuned into Ultimate Summit 4, chances are high that you were rooting for Light’s success this weekend. And who could blame you? The Fox player is on a hot streak, recently garnering his best results since Ultimate’s first few months on the market. Collision was another top 8 to add to that list, taking out LeoN, Zomba, and Chag in losers before Tweek ended his run at 5th.
Rounding out the top 6 was Quidd, the young Pokemon Trainer prodigy who made his first major appearance since his career-defining win at Let’s Make Big Moves 2022 back in January. We finally got to see Quidd face off against MkLeo in winners semis, and though it ended in a loss, he did draw blood with a 3-1 game count.
By placing in the top 8 for a second major in a row, Quidd proved that his LMBM victory wasn’t just a fluke. Now, if only we could see him compete again outside of Tristate events!
When talking about upsets at Collision, it’s impossible not to mention Jared “stocktaker69” Berkowitz and his wins over Chag and Elegant. The Wolf main from Long Island joined Riddles in having the best run of his career at Collision, finishing 9th despite having the 56th seed.
But it’s not as if stocktaker69 is just some random guy with a goofy tag, he’s been one of New York’s best players for quite some time. Between the game’s release and the beginning of the quarantine era, he was ranked in the Empire State in every season. To be recognized as one of the best players in one of the strongest states for Smash Bros. is no small feat, yet stocktaker69 managed it while in the midst of a character crisis. At the game’s launch stocktaker69 was a Villager main, carrying the character over from Smash 4 in hopes of them being improved. This was not the case, as he made the decision early-on to instead focus on Wolf. Stocktaker69 can usually be found attending AON weeklies in Long Island, often placing within the top 3 despite some serious competition in attendance including Suarez and PkChris.
And we know what you’re going to ask: it was sadly impossible for him to have taken 69 stocks this weekend. Over the course of his eight sets, stocktaker69 played a total of 25 games. At minimum, assuming he took zero stocks in all of the games he lost, stocktaker69 took 51 stocks. At most, assuming he took two stocks in all of his losses, the total comes out to 65 stocks. So close, and yet so far.
To finish out this recap, let's highlight a losers run that may have fallen under the radar. Very early on in the bracket, during winners round three, a set took place that resulted in an upset factor of nine, the highest of the tournament. Wheezer, a Dedede main from Texas who was seeded 270th, emerged victorious. Wheezer would go on to beat MRW, an Incineroar main from Buffalo NY before ending his run at 33rd to BigBoss and Suarez.
The loser of the aforementioned upset, Goblin, was seeded 14th and not expected to fall to losers side until top 32. However, he now found himself in a position where one more set loss would mean elimination from the tournament several rounds earlier than expected.
How did Goblin respond? By destroying losers bracket and ending countless runs for other players, of course. High level players such as Pelca, Mercury, Zane, and Soar now had to face a raging demon who seemed hellbent on clawing his way back to his projected placement. And that he did, also taking out Suarez and Elegant, who was already down on his luck after his stocktaker69 upset, to make it into top 16 losers side.
Goblin was eventually taken out by fellow Moist member and Roy player, Kola, ending his run at 13th and meeting his seed against severely stacked odds. He ended up playing more sets than nearly everyone else in the tournament, second only to Tweek whose grand finals reset made his total set count just one more than Goblin’s.
While that losers run was incredible, requiring perseverance we could only expect from a top player like Goblin, he seems to have a knack for this sort of thing. At Riptide 2021 he lost to Maister in round 2 pools before making a six set run through top 24, crushing his seed of 36 and ending the tournament with a top 6 finish. Then at Low Tide City, Goblin would once again fall to losers from pools round 2 in order to upset his way through five sets and finish at 7th place.
Both of these runs are impressive, but they hardly compare to the absurd nine set losers run Goblin had to endure in order to offset the upset factor 9 loss. That’s no mathematical coincidence, by the way: the calculation behind the Upset Factor used in the PGstats Upset Threads looks at the difference between projected finishes between the two players. Goblin’s nine-set losers run to his projected 13th place finish represents that he was seeded to make it nine rounds farther than Wheezer. Therefore, Upset Factor 9.
Collision 2022 was a worthy follow up act to Ultimate Summit 4, and further proves that this is one of the best times in Ultimate history to follow the game’s competitive scene. This month away from majors before the 1-2-3 combo of Genesis 8, Pound 2022, and Low Tide City 2022 in April will no doubt leave everyone hungry for more top level gameplay.
Of course, we’ll be there as always to provide coverage and recaps. Be sure to subscribe to the PGstats YouTube if you haven’t already, and we’ll see you Friday for our deep dive analysis.
